Top Step has a new posting, topic Wheat. (Note: The following link is from the History for easy reference.) http://www.wdmatrix.com/TopStep/History/043007/
General Comments: What a month. Outside up months were posted in Chicago MGE and KC. Topping the news was the dryness in Australia and EU. Mother nature added a twist with an U.S. Easter freeze that did terrible damage to the Soft and hard wheat areas. Early planted wheat took it the hardest, IL, KS, MO, AK and parts of the Delta may have fields that will be zeroed out and will be replanted to an alternative crop.
Page 1 plots the daily, weekly and the monthly spot wheat charts (Chicago). The daily plots the
square of the first initial range. The range was 82 cents up and a 1x1 off the low would be 82 market days over. the measurements of the the first square then is continued throughout the chart. As you can see the market hit resistance and failed on the highs and recent secondary highs. The market also honored the lows on support as well. The range is set and will take pretty bullish and /or bearish news to break either S&R.
General Comments: What a month. Outside up months were posted in Chicago MGE and KC. Topping the news was the dryness in Australia and EU. Mother nature added a twist with an U.S. Easter freeze that did terrible damage to the Soft and hard wheat areas. Early planted wheat took it the hardest, IL, KS, MO, AK and parts of the Delta may have fields that will be zeroed out and will be replanted to an alternative crop.
Page 1 plots the daily, weekly and the monthly spot wheat charts (Chicago). The daily plots the
square of the first initial range. The range was 82 cents up and a 1x1 off the low would be 82 market days over. the measurements of the the first square then is continued throughout the chart. As you can see the market hit resistance and failed on the highs and recent secondary highs. The market also honored the lows on support as well. The range is set and will take pretty bullish and /or bearish news to break either S&R.Page 2 shows the WD Gann Master Charts. The first charts shows the prices counting down from the 717 high in the May contract. Using the squares of nine,,, even square are on 360^ odd square are on the 180^. As the square expands and in this study decrease the more prices per revolution. That's why the markets move faster at bull market tops and bearish market bottoms. Also plotted is the Master Chart with a date in the middle running forward in time. 04-29-1996 was the high. In the technical arena each day, week, month is equal to 1 cent in the grains. By plotting the date in the center and working out you find excellent changes of trend, tops and bottoms, swing highs and lows zones using this square of nine.
Page 3, plots the seasonal charts. To make a long story short, seasonals are up into May - June and down into June - first week of July. The market tends to have a post harvest rally into late July and first part of August. Sept typically is the last low with the rally lasting into January. The third chart uploaded is interesting and worth noting. It rates the close for each week, on a 9 year study, a higher week receives a +1 a lower close for the week receives a -1. The theory, is that everything equals out. With world stocks as tight as they are; droughts, freezes etc you can see the market has closed lower more the higher. Caution here is that the wheat close 20 higher one week and 1 lower the next that equals zero, +1 -1. But over a time the market tends to zero out and start a longer term bull trend that will Que the market to have consecutive high close.
Page 4, is my favorite data of choice. The first chart plots 3 years of weekly CFTC data. Since funds control the show, in this day and age, obviously that's the one to watch. There are two lines Fund long OI (open interest) and Fund short OI. The OI in the short funds have give ample indication of changing of the trend. (Not a bottom picking format but longer term scenario.) Taking a look at the the short fund OI highs from 2005 through 2006 the funds exited positions. Drawing a line off this highs visually shows the trend as the OI drops in half. This line was broken in late Jan and the bears mounted a big position as short Fund OI rose sharply. As the weather took the market by surprise the Short fund OI has now dropped, to the point where they will be breaking the up trend line off the OI lows. If this happens, look for a sharp rally to take place. Currently the outside month up tells us the odds of more short OI covering is likely. (This means they will have to buy contracts to exit.) This last report shows that funds are equally short as long, which means the next CFTC numbers will be very important.
Added Note: Watch for a major low in to the Jupiter Saturn 120^ event this weekend with Pluto 360^ of Neptune. This will add fuel to all the markets fire, metals, dow, meats and grains.
Disclaimer: All comments and posts are for learning purposes only. Don't use this information for your trading. Don't believe the comments or posts as accurate at all. Again this blog or any other site related are for learning purposes only.
