http://www.wdmatrix.com/TopStep/History/041707/index.htm (The link is from the history links so bloggers can view this later.) Topic is Crude Oil
The Spot Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts, are showing the crude may have completed a
longer term secondary high. The spot daily 3 top pattern back in 2006 confirmed its top with a break of the bullish trend line and breaking the pivot with aggressive bearish action. The current pattern is identical pattern and the same speed of trend lines. The weekly chart plots the main 1x1's and it too has hit the 1x1 off the all-time highs and is currently in a 1x1 channel off of main highs. On a supportive note, the head-and-shoulders bottom that was carved out, may be technically sound, but the market will need to break the current parallel down trends to confirm.
The Master chart (page 2) shows the graph of the count down from the all-time-high at 7795 which is plotted in the center square and moves outward. The uploaded graph should of been longer with the low of 4990 on there, anyway, 4987 was 27 square (360^) or 27 complete revolutions. And if you go down until zero lands on 232^ or in between the 225^ and the 240^. Most of the contract months posted their back rallies also on the (360^). Example July Crude recent high was 6953, 6955 was the 15 Rev of 360^. Well, as you a can see, I could get pretty technical, but to make a long story short, the last highs made are solid and only a super bull will take them out.
Page 3 in the seasonal charts. This shows seasonal strength in to June-July. The only thing that really stands out is the last chart showing the 9 year consecutive higher or lower close probability. Out of the last nine years using 52 weeks a year, which weekly period stands out. The last week of June has closed higher 8 out of 9 years and again in the last week of Nov. and 9 out of 9 week the market closed higher the 3rd week of Feb. Remember, on tick higher then the previous counts as positive up week, so take that into consideration. As you look at the chart you can see the seasonal tendencies, down from Nov - Jan up in Jun - Aug, down in Sept -Nov.
Page 4, shows the CFTC numbers. Most of the charts deal with Fund Positions, since they are the driving force, up or down. The first chart is the 3 year, blue is longs and pink /red is shorts.
As you can see the bears blew out of shorts causing short OI to drop below trend support. Hence the futures market rallied as shorts need to buy to get out. Long OI also increased adding a pretty aggressive move out of the hole. One will need to watch the LONG OI funds a break below 170000 contracts would signal a trend change and a longer-term down trend at hand. Furthermore, if total fund OI doesn't make a new high, this leads one to believe the 80 highs are pretty solid.
Page 5, just has 4 other charts, Heat, Unleaded, N. Gas and a combo spread, which is interesting. Long 3 crude futures, short 1 Heat and 1 Unleaded.
If you have questions or comment, don't be shy, just reply.
Disclaimer: All comments and posts are for learning purposes only. Don't use this information for your trading. Don't believe the comments or posts as accurate at all. Again this blog or any other site related are for learning purposes only.
The Spot Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts, are showing the crude may have completed a
longer term secondary high. The spot daily 3 top pattern back in 2006 confirmed its top with a break of the bullish trend line and breaking the pivot with aggressive bearish action. The current pattern is identical pattern and the same speed of trend lines. The weekly chart plots the main 1x1's and it too has hit the 1x1 off the all-time highs and is currently in a 1x1 channel off of main highs. On a supportive note, the head-and-shoulders bottom that was carved out, may be technically sound, but the market will need to break the current parallel down trends to confirm.The Master chart (page 2) shows the graph of the count down from the all-time-high at 7795 which is plotted in the center square and moves outward. The uploaded graph should of been longer with the low of 4990 on there, anyway, 4987 was 27 square (360^) or 27 complete revolutions. And if you go down until zero lands on 232^ or in between the 225^ and the 240^. Most of the contract months posted their back rallies also on the (360^). Example July Crude recent high was 6953, 6955 was the 15 Rev of 360^. Well, as you a can see, I could get pretty technical, but to make a long story short, the last highs made are solid and only a super bull will take them out.
Page 3 in the seasonal charts. This shows seasonal strength in to June-July. The only thing that really stands out is the last chart showing the 9 year consecutive higher or lower close probability. Out of the last nine years using 52 weeks a year, which weekly period stands out. The last week of June has closed higher 8 out of 9 years and again in the last week of Nov. and 9 out of 9 week the market closed higher the 3rd week of Feb. Remember, on tick higher then the previous counts as positive up week, so take that into consideration. As you look at the chart you can see the seasonal tendencies, down from Nov - Jan up in Jun - Aug, down in Sept -Nov.
Page 4, shows the CFTC numbers. Most of the charts deal with Fund Positions, since they are the driving force, up or down. The first chart is the 3 year, blue is longs and pink /red is shorts.
As you can see the bears blew out of shorts causing short OI to drop below trend support. Hence the futures market rallied as shorts need to buy to get out. Long OI also increased adding a pretty aggressive move out of the hole. One will need to watch the LONG OI funds a break below 170000 contracts would signal a trend change and a longer-term down trend at hand. Furthermore, if total fund OI doesn't make a new high, this leads one to believe the 80 highs are pretty solid.
Page 5, just has 4 other charts, Heat, Unleaded, N. Gas and a combo spread, which is interesting. Long 3 crude futures, short 1 Heat and 1 Unleaded.
If you have questions or comment, don't be shy, just reply.
Disclaimer: All comments and posts are for learning purposes only. Don't use this information for your trading. Don't believe the comments or posts as accurate at all. Again this blog or any other site related are for learning purposes only.
