Wednesday, September 29, 2010

TopStep COT Alert: 5 Year Notes

5-Year Notes Alert: The 5-Year Notes have made new highs but without a fight as the Fund Shorts have made a 7 year low and have dropped 78,000 contracts pushing this market into these all-time levels. This is strange compared to the 2008 as Open Interest was high and shorts and longs battle it out, from funds to commercials. My first impressions of this are weak. The rally has no power behind it. Either this market is just beginning or a hammer decline is probable. This can be confirmed by the total OI decline. The 7 year record levels is only 17,000 contracts away. Remember in notes and bonds it's truly an inverse as interest rates are the driving force not the futures. The knowledge of this could see a broad based interest rates bottoms or future top is expected. Put options strategies maybe the play or covered short futures with calls. The monthly chart projects to 124 area and calls sold need to be above this zone.  View complete document: http://www.cotlive.com/COT/Main_files/092920105yr.pdf


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