Soybeans CFTC COT

Funds longs have powered up the recent rally in the soybean pit. It's hard to imagine the FL will get back to the record levels of 2008, especially since the margins have never been lowered by the exchanges from the $16 highs! Should expect some type of correction, 33% or 50% etc.

Fund shorts have lost ground which helps the price rally. Seasonally it appears the normal is off about 3 weeks. Normally, you make a March highs, but middle of April is likely.

Looking back at the last few years, it stands out, not to fight the trend, once the funds in 2006, 2007 and 2008 starting their buying spree, they didn't give up easily. Option expiration will be key for the May contract and July contracts. In the past few years option expiration has rallied to squeeze the short option sellers.


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