TopStep: CFTC Data, Following the Trail of Money!

TopStep Market Alert; Easy money with corn etf against the futures

2010-10-11T05:06:00.001-05:00

One can take advantage of the lag in the etf's when game changing news comes out like a grain crop report in corn. The corn etf traded higher but not near enough as the etf did not build any future, beyond limit, prices.
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TRADING IN COMMODITY FUTURES OR OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL
RISK OF LOSS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

TopStep COT Alert: 5 Year Notes

2010-09-29T12:17:00.001-05:00

5-Year Notes Alert: The 5-Year Notes have made new highs but without a fight as the Fund Shorts have made a 7 year low and have dropped 78,000 contracts pushing this market into these all-time levels. This is strange compared to the 2008 as Open Interest was high and shorts and longs battle it out, from funds to commercials. My first impressions of this are weak. The rally has no power behind it. Either this market is just beginning or a hammer decline is probable. This can be confirmed by the total OI decline. The 7 year record levels is only 17,000 contracts away. Remember in notes and bonds it's truly an inverse as interest rates are the driving force not the futures. The knowledge of this could see a broad based interest rates bottoms or future top is expected. Put options strategies maybe the play or covered short futures with calls. The monthly chart projects to 124 area and calls sold need to be above this zone. View complete document: http://www.cotlive.com/COT/Main_files/092920105yr.pdf

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TopStep Email Alert: Corn

2010-09-07T09:34:00.004-05:00

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Normally, there are rules technical traders follow. Example when Open Interest (OI) goes down but the market rallies, this is a bearish sign. This maybe true at times, but the real diagnoses is who is getting out of positions to cause the OI to go down. In looking at the CFTC COT data, one can see that Long Funds are buying and Short Funds are getting out. Commercial positions are less important, in a sense that are offsetting a cash position with futures; or vice versa. Nevertheless, Long Commercials exited 33869 positions, Short Commercials increased 2000 contracts and was the main reason for the drop in the OI. Without studying the money flow completely, one may have traded the corn incorrectly.

The FL was a new all-time-high in contract size. The previous record was back on 02-19-2008, oddly enough the time before record was 02-19-2007, a year earlier. Counter seasonal action for sure, as corn tends to make lows in Feb. In 2007 and in 2008 the Fund Longs and Commercial Shorts simultaneously made all-time-highs in Feb, but in 2008, along came the index funds business and put crimp in the Commercial Short's muscling the market lower. Needless to say the CS's bailed hard causing a 5 month rush to all-time future price highs in July of 2008.

Currently, the CS's stand at 811750 and the previous all-time-high was 970152. It will take approximately 7 weeks at the current post-report pace of 22675 contract per week average to make new all-time-highs. This would be around the week of Oct 22nd. My experience tells me that corn tends to have fundamental price adjustment periods. Global conditions change and basically the prices are to cheap. As in all things in our universe, velocity, momentum and mass are relative. Momentum (price) has gone up 135, mass (angle of accent) is 2x1, velocity (time) which equals 45 market days. Currently, the market has made highs Monday, the 7th which is 48 market days. 09-18-2010 is the next major market time is Jupiter 360^ Uranus. This is 55 market days from low and a Fibornocci timing. If the market goes straight up into this the high should project spot corn going to $4.90. If the Monday highs are good, look for 3-day pullback and 3-day rally for a secondary high or double top. Last possiblility would see a 6-mkt day sell off and 6-mkt day rally, with the 6-day break being the P&T pivot.

TRADING IN COMMODITY FUTURES OR OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL
RISK OF LOSS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

TopStep Alert: Heating Oil

2010-09-02T09:30:00.002-05:00

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Heating Oil Alert: The short Funds have made a new all-time record high of 43003 contracts. Knocking out the previous record that has stood since 01-03-2007. Many times this is leading indicator that these funds have established to large of position at or near the lows. The fund longs on the other hand, have made 7 week lows. Commercial longs have taken those shorts trades and have added 13329 long positions and are on a 7 week high. Commercials Longs made a all-time high of 219896 contracts on 06-15-2010. (The COT numbers are based as of Tuesday close.) It's been week; look at the charts to see the results. It's so very important to follow the flow the money and where it's coming from. Net positions are fine, but it doesn't show you which side of the trade is making the aggressive play... For complete report go to: http://www.cotlive.com/COT/Main_files/09012010ho.pdf

TRADING IN COMMODITY FUTURES OR OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL
RISK OF LOSS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

TopStep Alert: Corn, Long Index Funds made another all-time high.

2010-08-13T19:54:00.001-05:00

Hedgers are wrong and appears they will have to margin up those positions. View the complete breakdown at http://www.cotlive.com

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TRADING IN COMMODITY FUTURES OR OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL
RISK OF LOSS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

BP Stock chart 60 minute

2010-08-06T15:48:00.001-05:00

This chart is WD Gann type chart using 1x1 parallel trend lines. 50% is the natural gravitational traget...
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COTLive.com -- Top Step Email Alert. For: CRB -- Reversal down today

2010-08-05T13:48:00.001-05:00

Reversal down today is important. Watch Friday's trade to see if there is follow through to the downside. Trend is up and markets like wheat, crude, gold and others are still on the high side of the ranges of the last few years.
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TopStep Email Alert: Crude stocks are large for the price

2010-08-04T15:04:00.000-05:00

Crude has not yet penetrated the 50% level and with large supplies on hand it must be the index funds continuing to load this market and supporting breaks.

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TopStep Email Alert: New Record in Wheat

2010-08-04T08:46:00.000-05:00

I've been preaching for months and months that something big was going to happen. The internet is a great time bottle. http://www.cotlive.com/COT/Main_files/04202010W.pdf. For you new readers the questions is, How did you know? "By following the flow of the money" The Commitment of Traders Numbers shows the index funds are at record level and not getting out even today. We've had a $2.00 rally and the Short Commercials just broke a new record high and scale up selling. One must laugh,,, as a country we raise an actual SRW crop of 60,000 contracts Short Commercials were reported this week to be short 275,407 and willing to sell more? As rough calculation 250000x10000=$2.5 Trillion loss to commercials. Hmmm.

Alex Andresen | Owner of Advantage Futures Inc. |
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S&P has reached a point of resisitance

2010-08-03T14:47:00.001-05:00

WD Gann square is calling for time and price reversal. A move above this level is bullish. Watch for levels of broken support to sell.

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Dow Chart has timing today, chart is mathematical

2010-08-03T14:34:00.001-05:00

Look for broken support to give bears the fuel to break this market. Volume on the rallies have been light with larger volume on the sell-offs. Bonds might be the key as they remain strong.

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China Corn vs US Corn prices

2010-07-21T14:17:00.001-05:00

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Gold support is a major 1x1 WD Gann Trendline

2010-07-20T10:35:00.001-05:00

Lower highs and lower lows in the Gold monthly chart is bearish, but there are two main 1x1 trend lines below the market.

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WD Gann Squaring Soybeans

2010-07-14T21:04:00.000-05:00

The WD Gann Excel Squaring tool is sold on my site. http://www.cotlive.com/COT/wdgann/index.html This Soybean sample uses the excel tool using the high 1.663. This different view is mathematical but different then a 1x1 or one cent per bar, it's 1.663 per bar. This program can use normal or unique thoughts. W.D. Gann gave his life to the study of market mathematics and would have excelled with excel. The data chart is a clip of this study. Compare it to the charts and see if you can prove it wrong.

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KC Wheat Buy and the Soybeans are a Sell

2010-07-14T15:20:00.000-05:00

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Record Highs in Bean Oil Short Fund Positions at 79123 contracts

2010-07-13T16:04:00.005-05:00

Bean Oil Alert:

The CFTC COT data shows the Short Funds have made a new all-time high in Bean Oil at 79123 contracts, which also pushed a new all-time high in the Fund Volume. Over the years I've witnessed these single record breaking events to prove the high or low in a market. In this case the big boys are short and adding more at possible low. If BO doesn't make new lows and prove them correct they quickly short cover to exit those shorts causing a fast pop in the futures market.

Money Managers also made a new net record short position. As the crude oil in on the fence with offshore drilling, speculation of higher prices are likely. One of the charts below show the comparison of Crude to Soyoil.

Index Funds are still the story of the last few years. Long Index Funds are still hold a massive long position, in all grains. New ETF's are coming out daily on the stock market. The most recent is "CORN" symbol, and trades only corn. A few weeks old and has 120 contracts of corn already. To pop this eventual Index Fund bubble, the stock market will have to tank in a deflationary panic. So use caution out there.

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Corn Index Funds have mounted a record position, since report $1.2 Trillion gain

2010-07-07T22:48:00.000-05:00

CORN Alert: The spread between the China corn and US corn prices has widened. The tightening supplies in China will not go away as the population explosion continues. The economy of China is growing and their citizen's hunger for more exotic food and Western lifestyles. Course grain is the most basic food, veg oil is the next step up, and as the China family's income grows, red meat demand grows. Instead of one chicken per month per family, now they eat one chicken per week!

In many of my past alerts, wheat, beans, and corn, Index Long Funds have mounted a massive long position. Recent all-time-highs in corn index funds 522501, beans 193023, wheat 262258, totaling 977782 contract longs. In this last acres report phase; these long contracts have made $2.5 trillion total! For every long there is a short and that is why it is important to "FOLLOW THE FLOW OF THE MONEY!"

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Coffee has hit an important resistance this week with timing

2010-06-29T12:18:00.000-05:00

06-27-08 was a high, and 07-13-09 was a high, look for 07-13-10 to be a secondary high or hammer low. Resistance is mathematical on the projections and backup with the cross of the trend lines.

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Wheat shorts are adding to their short futures positions

2010-06-20T12:38:00.001-05:00

Wheat Alert:

View Complete Report http://www.cotlive.com/COT/Main.htm

Small fund shorts have added to their shorts making a new record at 144045 contracts
Short Money Managers like CTA's have also posted a new record short at 110780 contracts
Small short specs are reaching 60000 contracts
Between these 3 categories the shorts have lost $550,000,000 on this back rally of .35 cents
Weather has reduced yields in the US, Canada and China.

An early rally this week should cause more short covering and protection of remaining profits. Options go off June 25th and plays into any possible short covering this week.

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BP 60min chart

2010-06-16T19:08:00.001-05:00

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Soybeans

2010-06-09T14:13:00.002-05:00

Soybeans coming up on last years highs. 06-15-2010

Disclaimer: All comments and posts are for learning purposes only. Don't use this information for your trading. Don't believe the comments or posts as accurate at all. Again this blog or any other site related are for learning purposes only. There is risk in trading commodities.

Hamburger spread

2010-06-03T09:24:00.001-05:00

Spread of the LCM-LCQ is breaking out, depending on the close. Deliveries begin Friday

There is shortage of hamburger and costs at the store will go up. With the weight of the cattle down and numbers lower as well, will not ease the shortage problem.

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CFTC Commitment of Trades data shows records number of traders in Euro FX...

2010-06-01T12:04:00.001-05:00

Four all-time records have been this last few weeks in the Euro FX. Looking for retracement recovery and bear trend to resume.

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QID is out of wack with the QQQQ

2010-05-31T22:52:00.000-05:00

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WD GANN SQUARE CRUDE 60MIN CHART

2010-05-27T09:03:00.001-05:00

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COTLive.com & Commitment of Traders show Crude Oilhas Topped

2010-05-24T17:17:00.000-05:00

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Energies Alert:
Ethanol is cheap, causing exports to grow
The bio-diesel tax credit is attached to a jobs bill scheduled for a vote by Congress this week
A Saudi Arabian think tank suggested that crude oil could slip to $65 from the current $70 area.
A weather system 500 miles S/SW of Bermuda has a 30% chance of being the first storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season
Heating Oil Non-commercials are net long 17,995 contracts, down 3,349 contracts from the previous COT report
Unleaded Non-commercials hold net length of 48,345 contracts in RBOB, down 4,592 contracts from the previous COT report
Non-commercials are net short 95,332 futures + option contracts, an increase of 11,155 contracts since the last CTO report.

The Planets and Moons are Lining-up for Top in Gold

2010-05-08T14:50:00.001-05:00

Begin to maintain tighter stops and lay in the weeds at good places were shorts are getting stopped out for low risk top-picking opps.

Alex Andresen

President /CEO of
Advantage Futures Inc.
800-284-7989 or 785-825-5102

DISCLAIMER: Advantage Futures Inc is a US registered futures Introducing Broker and a member of the NFA. Advantage Futures Inc does not warrant the correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. The contents of this e-mail communication and any attachments are for informational purposes only and under no circumstances should they be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any futures contract, option, security, or derivative including foreign exchange. The information is intended solely for the personal and confidential use of the recipient of this e-mail communication. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any use, dissemination, distribution or copying of this communication is strictly prohibited and you are requested to return this message to the sender immediately and delete all copies from your system. All e-mail may be reviewed by authorized personnel and may be provided to regulatory authorities or others with a legal right to access such information. At various times, Advantage Futures Inc or its affiliates may have positions in and effect transactions in securities or other financial instruments referred to herein. Opinions expressed herein are statements only of the date indicated and are not given or endorsed by Advantage Futures Inc. unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative. Due to the electronic nature of e-mails, there is a risk that the information contained in this message has been modified. Consequently, Advantage Futures Inc. cannot guaranty that messages or attachments are virus free, do not contain malicious code or are compatible with your electronic systems and Man does not accept liability in respect of viruses, malicious code or any related problems that you may experience. Trading in futures, securities, options or other derivatives, and OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Privacy policy available upon request.

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Wheat Bull is underway

2010-04-22T12:12:00.002-05:00

View the complete breakdown at cotlive.com web site

Disclaimer: All comments and posts are for learning purposes only. Don't use this information for your trading. Don't believe the comments or posts as accurate at all. Again this blog or any other site related are for learning purposes only. There is risk in trading commodities.

Weather could cause the grains, corn and beans to have a sharp rally.

2010-03-16T17:31:00.002-05:00

http://www.cotlive.com/COT/weather.htm "Click on the Weekly Video"

Flooding is now the weather problem that will keep this market on pins and needles. SOI graph is the lowsest in 3 years, more cool and wet weather. USGS is showing mass and record flooding in the midwest as temps stay up in the high 50's. Robins have migrated north into Minnisota and waiting for the snow to melt. Should cause the grain market to pop and go into the weather mode!

Alex Andresen | Owner of Advantage Futures Inc. |
785-825-5102 | alex@cotlive.com | http://www.cotlive.com/Main.htm

Massive Index Fund Buying in Wheat Corn Soybeans

2010-02-01T08:18:00.002-06:00

The index funds are power buying the Corn, Soybeans and Wheat. The small funds are adding to their short positions and the index funds are cost averaging a massive position. In the Wheat the Commercial Longs are buying in record new highs as well. The wrong guys are short the market and leads me to believe to follow the flow of the money and buy this market at some point. Feb 5th is big, Jupiter is 45^ Saturn, Jupiter is 30^ Pluto. Let the fireworks begin.

I did a quick wheat article at http://www.cotlive.com/COT/Main.htm
The other data can be found on the main site.

Disclaimer: All comments and posts are for learning purposes only. Don't use this information for your trading. Don't believe the comments or posts as accurate at all. Again this blog or any other site related are for learning purposes only. There is risk of loss of cash in trading commodities.

COTlive.com has uploaded a Soybean post

2009-06-12T16:48:00.001-05:00

Soybeans have Topped.

Topic: Soybeans Spot Contract is July 2009 Date: 06/2009 Week 23

SN9 Techinicals: High 16.50 on 07-03-2008 Low 8.40 on 12-05-2008 Support 11.68, Resistance 18.00

Soybeans have hit some important technical points. The highs Thursday in July beans hit the old 1973 hit at 1290 and at the same time Nov beans hit the 1988 high at 1099. These annual highs are resistance until closed over. In the daily chart below, the market hit the Fibonacci time and price 1.68%. This market could break $1.90 and still be in an up trend. Interesting to note; that the Fibonacci time projection is on the first notice day of the July contract. One of the biggest reports of the year, Grain Stocks and Planted Acres, is on June 30^th. So a pull back into this zone is logical.

The Long Index Funds are about halfway back in their long positions from 2008. The large loss that occurred in the 2008 will hard to recover. Remember, ETFs buy the most contracts at the top, when the public finally becomes convinced the commodities are going sensationally higher. And sell the most contracts when redemptions begin to come in.

CIT Shorts are much smaller but show the scale-up mentality. And who made the most money, CIT Shorts or CIT Long?

Bullish Consensus shows that 80% interviewed are bullish and the contrarian view would look at this as a possible high.

Alex Andresen Owner of Advantage Futures Inc. 785-825-5102 alex@cotlive.com http://www.cotlive.com/Main.htm

Soybeans CFTC COT

2009-04-16T07:53:00.004-05:00

Funds longs have powered up the recent rally in the soybean pit. It's hard to imagine the FL will get back to the record levels of 2008, especially since the margins have never been lowered by the exchanges from the $16 highs! Should expect some type of correction, 33% or 50% etc.

Fund shorts have lost ground which helps the price rally. Seasonally it appears the normal is off about 3 weeks. Normally, you make a March highs, but middle of April is likely.

Looking back at the last few years, it stands out, not to fight the trend, once the funds in 2006, 2007 and 2008 starting their buying spree, they didn't give up easily. Option expiration will be key for the May contract and July contracts. In the past few years option expiration has rallied to squeeze the short option sellers.

Disclaimer: All comments and posts are for learning purposes only. Don't use this information for your trading. Don't believe the comments or posts as accurate at all. Again this blog or any other site related are for learning purposes only. There is risk in trading commodities.

CFTC Data, Emini S&P index

2009-03-23T09:05:00.005-05:00

The Emini S&P: The record OI posted on the CFTC numbers are interesting to say the least. The OI has been going up on fund longs for 10 weeks in spite of the large decline that occurred. The last record OI was on 06-12-2007 in the height of the Bull! I thought the Fund Long OI might drop back once the March went off the board, but the longs rolled to June. This not a market to buy breakout strength and buying puts on rallies is logical.

It appears the professional traders; instead of beating the S&P, they are using the S&P index. Why pick 50 or so stocks when you can trade the index with margin leverage? The nice thing about he index, is that, all the bad stocks get knocked off the index and new ones take their place. This give the index a false record of stocks. Off the top of my head, as an example in the DOW,,, AIG was replaced with Kraft, well AIG was under $1, but the index doesn't factor the loss in. Anyway it appears the Big Boy's are cost averaging down the futures.

Disclaimer: All comments and posts are for learning purposes only. Don't use this information for your trading. Don't believe the comments or posts as accurate at all. Again this blog or any other site related are for learning purposes only. There is risk in trading commodities.

Monday Market Comments

2009-03-16T11:51:00.002-05:00

Grains

In the over night trade the market was lower, with fresh round of power buying this AM. The market looks and feels bullish. Chart patterns are good and Seasonal action should be to the upside. Timing Wed the 18th and 21st. The word "spring" is appropriate!

Alex Andresen Owner of Advantage Futures Inc. 785-825-5102 alex@wdmatrix.com http://www.wdmatrix.com/TSM/topstep.htm

TopStep has Uploaded the New CFTC Numbers and Charts

2009-03-16T08:11:00.007-05:00

GENERAL SUMMATION:

After the monster bull run many of the commodities had a crash was in order. After the crash there is normally a brief period of rest and accumulation. This allows the margins to back down so the cycle can start all over again. The trick is knowing when its a low or just a pause!

The CFTC numbers can help with that. The data is delayed about 5 days, so its tough to just trade on the raw data, but I use for a backdrop, kind of like looking at monthly chart.

There are only a few commodities out of the 43 that I follow that have any extremes going on. And the just so happen to be in the energies. This week Heating Oil and Natural Gas tweaked the list. The HO has made a new all-time high in Commercial Shorts Open Interest. So the big boys are loading it up and hedging their inventory. This means either we have to much current inventory or they are hedging out into the future to lock in current prices.

Natural Gas contrarily has made a 7 year low in CS's OI. Hmmm... Commercial Shorts are getting out as the market makes new lows. This would be a tough one to sell weakness on from here but the chart is ugly. One good thing is that margins have come down and that shows signs that the exchange feels the wild risk is out of the market, meaning the boys that were wrong are now out!

One other market that keeps topping the chart CFTC charts is the Emini S&P. This is interesting one. In June of 2008 the Fund Longs OI was at 27o-k since the hard price smash the current FL OI is breaching the all-time high records. Currently the FL OI is at 730-k. The fund managers are not trying to beat the S&P they are using the S&P. Will see what happens when March goes off and we'll see if the fund longs roll to June. This concerns me for hard smash if they roll into June. They are long and wrong!!! The market might have to bust these guys. We'll know in the next couple of weeks to see if they roll or not.

Top Step Wheat Futures

2007-04-30T10:14:00.000-05:00

Top Step has a new posting, topic Wheat. (Note: The following link is from the History for easy reference.) http://www.wdmatrix.com/TopStep/History/043007/

General Comments: What a month. Outside up months were posted in Chicago MGE and KC. Topping the news was the dryness in Australia and EU. Mother nature added a twist with an U.S. Easter freeze that did terrible damage to the Soft and hard wheat areas. Early planted wheat took it the hardest, IL, KS, MO, AK and parts of the Delta may have fields that will be zeroed out and will be replanted to an alternative crop.

Page 1 plots the daily, weekly and the monthly spot wheat charts (Chicago). The daily plots the square of the first initial range. The range was 82 cents up and a 1x1 off the low would be 82 market days over. the measurements of the the first square then is continued throughout the chart. As you can see the market hit resistance and failed on the highs and recent secondary highs. The market also honored the lows on support as well. The range is set and will take pretty bullish and /or bearish news to break either S&R.

Page 2 shows the WD Gann Master Charts. The first charts shows the prices counting down from the 717 high in the May contract. Using the squares of nine,,, even square are on 360^ odd square are on the 180^. As the square expands and in this study decrease the more prices per revolution. That's why the markets move faster at bull market tops and bearish market bottoms. Also plotted is the Master Chart with a date in the middle running forward in time. 04-29-1996 was the high. In the technical arena each day, week, month is equal to 1 cent in the grains. By plotting the date in the center and working out you find excellent changes of trend, tops and bottoms, swing highs and lows zones using this square of nine.

Page 3, plots the seasonal charts. To make a long story short, seasonals are up into May - June and down into June - first week of July. The market tends to have a post harvest rally into late July and first part of August. Sept typically is the last low with the rally lasting into January. The third chart uploaded is interesting and worth noting. It rates the close for each week, on a 9 year study, a higher week receives a +1 a lower close for the week receives a -1. The theory, is that everything equals out. With world stocks as tight as they are; droughts, freezes etc you can see the market has closed lower more the higher. Caution here is that the wheat close 20 higher one week and 1 lower the next that equals zero, +1 -1. But over a time the market tends to zero out and start a longer term bull trend that will Que the market to have consecutive high close.

Page 4, is my favorite data of choice. The first chart plots 3 years of weekly CFTC data. Since funds control the show, in this day and age, obviously that's the one to watch. There are two lines Fund long OI (open interest) and Fund short OI. The OI in the short funds have give ample indication of changing of the trend. (Not a bottom picking format but longer term scenario.) Taking a look at the the short fund OI highs from 2005 through 2006 the funds exited positions. Drawing a line off this highs visually shows the trend as the OI drops in half. This line was broken in late Jan and the bears mounted a big position as short Fund OI rose sharply. As the weather took the market by surprise the Short fund OI has now dropped, to the point where they will be breaking the up trend line off the OI lows. If this happens, look for a sharp rally to take place. Currently the outside month up tells us the odds of more short OI covering is likely. (This means they will have to buy contracts to exit.) This last report shows that funds are equally short as long, which means the next CFTC numbers will be very important.

Added Note: Watch for a major low in to the Jupiter Saturn 120^ event this weekend with Pluto 360^ of Neptune. This will add fuel to all the markets fire, metals, dow, meats and grains.

Disclaimer: All comments and posts are for learning purposes only. Don't use this information for your trading. Don't believe the comments or posts as accurate at all. Again this blog or any other site related are for learning purposes only.

Crude Oil

2007-04-19T08:48:00.000-05:00

http://www.wdmatrix.com/TopStep/History/041707/index.htm (The link is from the history links so bloggers can view this later.) Topic is Crude Oil

The Spot Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts, are showing the crude may have completed a longer term secondary high. The spot daily 3 top pattern back in 2006 confirmed its top with a break of the bullish trend line and breaking the pivot with aggressive bearish action. The current pattern is identical pattern and the same speed of trend lines. The weekly chart plots the main 1x1's and it too has hit the 1x1 off the all-time highs and is currently in a 1x1 channel off of main highs. On a supportive note, the head-and-shoulders bottom that was carved out, may be technically sound, but the market will need to break the current parallel down trends to confirm.

The Master chart (page 2) shows the graph of the count down from the all-time-high at 7795 which is plotted in the center square and moves outward. The uploaded graph should of been longer with the low of 4990 on there, anyway, 4987 was 27 square (360^) or 27 complete revolutions. And if you go down until zero lands on 232^ or in between the 225^ and the 240^. Most of the contract months posted their back rallies also on the (360^). Example July Crude recent high was 6953, 6955 was the 15 Rev of 360^. Well, as you a can see, I could get pretty technical, but to make a long story short, the last highs made are solid and only a super bull will take them out.

Page 3 in the seasonal charts. This shows seasonal strength in to June-July. The only thing that really stands out is the last chart showing the 9 year consecutive higher or lower close probability. Out of the last nine years using 52 weeks a year, which weekly period stands out. The last week of June has closed higher 8 out of 9 years and again in the last week of Nov. and 9 out of 9 week the market closed higher the 3rd week of Feb. Remember, on tick higher then the previous counts as positive up week, so take that into consideration. As you look at the chart you can see the seasonal tendencies, down from Nov - Jan up in Jun - Aug, down in Sept -Nov.

Page 4, shows the CFTC numbers. Most of the charts deal with Fund Positions, since they are the driving force, up or down. The first chart is the 3 year, blue is longs and pink /red is shorts.
As you can see the bears blew out of shorts causing short OI to drop below trend support. Hence the futures market rallied as shorts need to buy to get out. Long OI also increased adding a pretty aggressive move out of the hole. One will need to watch the LONG OI funds a break below 170000 contracts would signal a trend change and a longer-term down trend at hand. Furthermore, if total fund OI doesn't make a new high, this leads one to believe the 80 highs are pretty solid.

Page 5, just has 4 other charts, Heat, Unleaded, N. Gas and a combo spread, which is interesting. Long 3 crude futures, short 1 Heat and 1 Unleaded.

If you have questions or comment, don't be shy, just reply.

Disclaimer: All comments and posts are for learning purposes only. Don't use this information for your trading. Don't believe the comments or posts as accurate at all. Again this blog or any other site related are for learning purposes only.

TopStep Sugar Futures

2007-04-03T07:46:00.000-05:00

As corn price have risen over the years, sugar price has declined. Corn sweeteners have become expensive and sugar has once again found its way on the labels of many products, with more to come. Raw sugar is the number one used commodity in the world, hence the futures you normally trade is called World Sugar No. 11. Sugar has also found its way into the bio-energies sector as several countries are using up supplies for ethanol.

Sugar is a slow working machine, grinding slowly up or down. It's hard to imagine trading $66 dollar sugar, but on 11-21-1974 the market topped at 66.00. Since this was monster all-time high, on should always look for changes of trend on the 21st of each month, it may not be the low or high for the month but it can offer major or minor events. (This is true with all markets) Two main points that should be watched bases this 11-21 high is 1/3rd points on the calendar, each year: March 21St. and July 23Rd and of course Nov 21St.

The highs back on 02-03-2006 is now the main bull market pivot at 1950. So one should also watch the 3Rd's of each month for additional changes of trend. (always give or take a few days) This is one of the reasons for the posting and the TopStep publication;
http://www.wdmatrix.com/TopStep/History/040307/ You can view the chart data here.

Currently the chart is sucking mud and has broken some key supports. The spot low is still intact, and should offer a bounce or two at least. The bottoms in sugar can be trying and slow and as volatility drops off, some 2008 calls should be added to your portfolio. That's all for now.

Disclaimer: All comments and posts are for learning purposes only. Don't use this information for your trading. Don't believe the comments or posts as accurate at all. Again this blog or any other site related are for learning purposes only.

TopStep Grain Futures Index

2007-03-29T11:25:00.000-05:00

The grain index chart is made up of beans, corn, wheat, oats, meal, and oil. Multiplies by their contact values. This gives a fair value in relation to each other on how much the "grains" have gone up or down as one unit. Example oats at 300x50=15000TV were beans are 750x50=37500TV, this index relation is some what skewed to the beans, because of the higher value. The next chart uploaded will not have the beans included, call it a feed grain / energy index.

It appears the market is poised for its 5Th and final leg. As you can see the market has equaled its time and price break from the summer of 2006, and its time break, not so much a price break, in winter of 2006. This 30 day market day break currently comes in on April 3-6Th 2007. The acreage report is Friday the 30Th and will cause some interesting fluctuations, where it closes the following week will be key.

The feed grain index does not include the soybeans, it does include meal and oil. This charts is coiling up for potential move, up or down, is still unknown. Coming into the weather for the USA one would assume and advance is likely, unless the report Friday is extremely bearish. A close over last week's index high will be bullish this index.

TopStep: Free Online Commodity Newsletter

2007-03-25T10:36:00.000-05:00

TopStep: Free Online Commodity Newsletter

Cocoa Futures

2007-03-25T07:53:00.000-05:00

I've posted a new TopStep, topic is Cocoa

(the link is from the history, not the current, this helps blogger's view it later on.) http://www.wdmatrix.com/TopStep/History/032507/.

Main points of interest on the Cocoa upload:

1)The solar eclipse was on the weekend of March 18th, 2007. The market was in a holding pattern on the daily charts. As the SE time came in the market gapped higher and began a rapid acceleration, this looks bullish with new highs.

2)The weekly chart is now it second stage and holding its new parallel trend speed. Typically there are three speed changes before the market tops out, long-term.

3)The monthly chart plots the squares of 210, which was the all-time-low price. Since 210 price is very small I multiply by 10 equalling 2100 for the price perimeter. Time is still 210 months. The squares on the chart are 2100 price to 210 in time, subdivided by 2 to give 50% or 1050 x 105. The lines marked in red are mathematical inserted on the sub squares of 210. The other lines are parallel lines inserted from the lows or highs. As you can see the market appears to be on a resistance common down trend line off the all-time-high and the last 2nd major high. But, it is not common! This is a mathematical TL and very important! Also, you can see a sub square marked in red intersecting, the recent highs. Two obvious things will happen, first the market will honor this a resistance and break back, or it will surge through and cause an extended and extreme advance. This is the last down-trend line and the topside formation of the 30 year wedge.

4)Page two shows WD Gann Master Chart breakdown of the 2420 high made in 2003 and the 674 low made in 2000. 04-04-2007 is matching up the 180^ and 360^ and should offer a trade opportunity.

5)Page three is the seasonal charts. It appears the market seasonally goes down into May. The last chart shows http://www.wdmatrix.com/TopStep/History/032507/Page3.htm#Best%20Odds%20Study: a strong tendency in the last week of March to close lower then the previous week of March; 9 out 9 years.

6)Page four is the CFTC breakdown, plotting fund activity. The last 3 years the funds are channelling higher. The spread between long are short are historically wide and may get wider as index funds are beginning to apply cocoa to there portfolios. As a longer-term note, if the long funds break a common trend line support, which you can draw off the last lows, the market tends to liquidate on a multi-leg correction.

7)Page five has some misc. charts on it. For those that are long futures one may consider looking at the chart plotting the 1900 put. It is on the bottom of the channel and may offer a substitute for getting out or placing a stop.

Email Praise and a Question

2006-12-06T08:44:00.000-06:00

Subject: Praise and a Question
Dear Alex,

I really appreciate what you are doing by providing the information that you do. I thank you sincerely for the service you provide for free.

I just have a question and that is why is it so hard to make even a dime in the markets?
I have studied Gann now for a number of years, developed many charts similar to yours and Gann's, obtained and studied long histories and cycles of different markets, studied astrology in relation to the markets, and have applied all the above to trading while adhering to Gann's rules as much as is humanly possible, yet my account has gone down from 8k three years ago to 3.5k today. My financial condition has worsened along with my trading record. Any wisdom you can impart would be appreciated.

Sincerely,

I believe it is a mindset. Be the Hunter not the Prey. I realized 12 to 15 years ago, daily, weekly monthly charts as well as, technical indicators, Gann squares, Master charts etc. etc. etc... are nothing more then,,, a,,,, basic,,,, screwdriver!! A tool or collection of tools. Can you put together a car with a just a screwdriver?? Of course not. I can honestly say, that I have called 459 market tops and bottoms to the penny and day.... ( 459 is a guess, but it is a bunch) Now the question one needs to ask is, did "I" make any money calling this amazing market calls???? Not a dime; might of lost money on some. A good example was 2004 called the bean top within 4 cents on the day got out of my longs and went short,, I was the hunter not the prey. But the out pooring of news and the shortage of supplies mentally buckled me and I got out of my shorts and went back long on what I thought was a good break.... ERROR... I became the prey. made 65 cents short and lost 97 cents on the longs before I realized my error in judgement. Don't get me wrong, I made a big chunk of change, but the error at the top messed me up,, I didn't sell the market again until the next year...

Again, trading is mindset. Another example is OJ. 4 damaging weather events hurt the OJ supplies, the market went lower,,, HELLO !!! I started watching OJ like a hawk. Watch the news, as the news stories faded, the market gathered strength. Looked a my monthlies and weeklies as well as my Master Charts and other Gann stuff to confirm or deny the move. Everything pointed up, so my mindset was long-term bullish. As the story unfolds March is on its at all-time high, and nothing in the news yet about the high prices,,, lol....

My procedures are this:__ Look at a monthly and /or Weekly charts to see what looks good to me. If so, a look at my Master Calendar to see what dates have some accumulation... (The master calendar is all the dates from the Master Charts, Geo and Helio timings, gravimatrix timeing, historical annuals and 7 years of swing dates, plotted on a calendar) It takes me 10 hours to complete one commodity. I trade about 30 different markets, thats 300 hours to complete, not including any stocks that I might trade. I do not ever enter a market without having done this work!!!! Next I look at the square of nine Master Chart, to see if the market is ripe to pick and so I can become a Hunter.

Anything under $25,000 is to small to long-term trade a market, in my opinion. With your account I would focus on time. Once you have found a good time zone, buy or sell according to the trend and take profits after reaching 135 degrees from the low or high point. Yesterday I sold the silver at 1426 had 11 things coming in on that date on my Master Calendar. I didn't sell the trend short until the intra-day trend broke. got out last night at 135 degrees on the sq of nine chart at 1376... This happen to be a two day trade ( 12 hours actually) but it can take up to a week on slower markets to acheive 135^. I call this scalping with a high rate of confidence. My stop is always in based on the Master Chart sq of nine chart. Once I'm stopped out or profits taken I don't even look at the market until the next big timing comes in.

Why I do this, you may ask?? Because the risk is extremely low and I become a hunter not the prey. Once you get your account built up to full contract margins, meaning if you trade corn, full contract margins are 3.75 x 5000 or $18,750.00 then you can long-term trade that market using the same approach but looking to add on the points were the prey are placing there stops.,, Again, if the time and price is right.

Over the past 25 years I've metemorphized from a buy and hold according to my opinions of the direction of the market,,,, to,,,, JUST MAKING MONEY regardless of my opinion. I've moved to the third demension of trading and that is understanding volume of sales, how much money is made or lost per day, week or trendline break. I try to follow the professional money,, they're the ones that can change or move a market to levels one could not of dreamed. The CFTC numbers are a valuable TOOL,, just a tool...

TIMEOUT

As you can see, I've given one to many seminars,, I will get off the soap box now... Let me know how it goes.

ThanksAlex Andresengann@solarmatrix.com http://www.solarmatrix.com

"If you will put in the time to study and practice with this Master Chart using all of the time periods and price levels, you will soon find that it is easy to determine a change in trend from this chart alone..... Prices are governed by time and time causes price to change and the time angles are the resistance to price. These are measured in hours of longitude which are basic geometric angles and determine the changes in trend. By checking over past records you see how accurate this works out."-- WD GANN --

Disclaimer: All comments and posts are for learning purposes only. Don't use this information for your trading. Don't believe the comments or posts as accurate at all. Again this blog or any other site related are for learning purposes only.

CRUDE OIL cycling up again

2006-09-25T23:42:00.000-05:00

Looking back at the post made on the crude oil. It was home run trade. Calling a high is great for the ego but, did the "call" line the pockets.... You bet. Lunar Eclipse high and Solar Eclipse low. The sequence could have varied. Like a Lunar and Solar Eclipse high, secondary high. But it didn't. The main reason for believing the SE was a low, because the date fell on the fall equinox and the 30 cycle fell in the same zone as well. A clasic WD Gann market call.

Now what? Made a lick in the options and futures, but does one buy and go long or wait to sell? Is the long-term trend down or still up.?

To much to soon. Time is always the most important. the biggest break has been 57 to 63 market days. To determine if the trend is totally gone bust, you may need to wait to see what this timing will do. If accumilation and a rally does take place from this point, we'll be acting on the 30 market day cycle from that farthest point. So a rally is likely. But, if the longterm trend is offically down, a continuation of trend is likely. This means instead of 30 day break it may turn into a 60 day extended decline.

The oil supplies are the largest in history, and all the rampted up exploritory oil digs, will only add to the large supplies. Increase in Ethinal production along with the car manufactures now building the "light weight death trap fuel economey cars", logically spells out "surplus". My point is: Bullish on the bounce, but am know long-term bearish. This doesn't mean that double top or some type of secondary high is possible.

Disclaimer: All comments and posts are for learning purposes only. Don't use this information for your trading. Don't believe the comments or posts as accurate at all. Again this blog or any other site related are for learning purposes only.

First post TopStep Free Commodity Newsletter

2006-09-19T07:13:00.000-05:00

This blog is created in replacement or better yet, an additional componet to the topstep website http://www.wdmatrix.com/TopStep/

I think this may be the best bet for getting responce and folks talking about the topic at hand.

more later